Current mood:

tense

Election night (part 2)
Just a few minutes until a slew of provinces close. The Republicans are ahead, but things are not looking good for them.


Coming up at the top of the hour:
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
Columbia (3)
Maine* (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
Michigan (17)
Hampshire, New (4)
Jersey, New (15)
Pennsylvania (21)
Tennessee (11)
Alabama (9)
Florida (27)
Illinois (21)
Kansas (6)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (11)
Oklahoma (7)
Texas (34)

We're also waiting for
Carolina North (15)
Ohio (20)
Carolina South (8)
Virginia East (13)

0055 Back from some server troubles. ITV confirms that NBC really is calling Florida for the Reps by 12. Goodness knows about the BBC site, I've four channels to zap between (given up on Bloomberg) and seem to spend most time on CNN and (C)NBC.

0056 It's now Florida Rep by 15, but Bob Worcester of MORI is pooh-poohing those results on ITV - he's seen Kerry leads by 1 and 4. "I can't believe it," says the grand old man of polls. ITV's also got someone called Iain Duncan Smith. Cool name, don't think he'll ever amount to much.

0058 Georgia called on no results? That'll be the exit polls - it would have required a 6% swing to topple the Reps, and only the Carolinas are delivering that sort of swing.

0100 Here we go... all CNN projections
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
Columbia (3)
Maine* (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
Jersey, New (15)
Tennessee (11)
Alabama (9)
Illinois (21)
Oklahoma (7)

No calls for
Hampshire, New (4)
Pennsylvania (21)
Florida (27)
Kansas (6)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (11)

We're also waiting for
Carolina North (15)
Ohio (20)
Carolina South (8)
Virginia East (13)

Texas doesn't actually close for another hour. Sorry to get your hopes up.

0104 By my reckoning, that makes Democrat 77, Republican 65, Faithless 1.

0106 Slap my wrists, I've not explained Maine. Dem to take the majority of the vote overall, and the win in district 1, but CNN has district 2 too close to call. That's why they're only putting 3 of 4 votes in the Dem bag.

0107 BBC finally catching up on these calls. You hear it here first!

0108 The BBC's called Maine 2 for the Dems. As we mentioned earlier, if the BBC says it's so, it's so. Chalk up a 78th seat for the Dems.

0111 Alistair Stewart on ITV suggests the 57% for the Reps in Florida is a rogue poll. No, really?!

0113 Through the 0100s that we don't have a result:
Hampshire, New (4) - Zogby has this Dem by 5.
Pennsylvania (21) - "Trending Dem".
Florida (27) - "Trending Dem" but only by a sneeze.
Kansas (6) - Solid Rep. Looks like there may be some extended voting here.
Mississippi (6) - Should be solid Rep.
Missouri (11) - Rep by 3% on a minimal swing.

0115 Bob Worcester points out that there is only one exit poll - the NBC 15% decision is their call.

0116 NBC calls Hampshire New for the Reps. No-one else has followed their lead.

Scores on the doors: Dem 78, Rep 65, Faithless 1. I'm still backing Kerry.

Who's coming in at 0130?
The urban part of Carolina North (15)
Arkansas (6)

Still waiting:
Hampshire, New (4)
Pennsylvania (21)
Florida (27)
Kansas (6)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (11)
Carolina North (15)
Ohio (20)
Carolina South (8)
Virginia East (13)

0121 Hmm. Looks like NBC has made a further call for the Reps worth 12 points. Not sure what that is.

0123 Alistair Stewart reckons NBC is reckoning Florida is for Kerry. CNN and the BBC are not joining that call, ITV has followed NBC's lead.

0125 Alistair reports Florida as 50-49 to the Dems. See you all in court!

0127 Yes, beingjdc, the explanation of the party colours is a joke. My gut feeling is to put the Dems in red and Reps in blue, the choice of colour is something we'll have to come back to after sunrise.

0129 The BBC's given the Reps 15 seats while I was away. That must be Carolina North (15) The Virginia partial result is Rep by 12, but the Dem strongholds are yet to report...

0130 CNN is - showing commercials!!! The BBC has rather missed the fact that Arkansas has closed.

0134 BBC calls Virginia East for the Reps. That puts them 93-78-1 ahead.

0136 chocaholic7 reports the BBC reporting Florida is trending Rep, Ohio trending Dem. That would put Kerry 18 away from victory.

0137 Bob Worcester of MORI has some vote shares from the swingometer: Rep 48% Dem 51%.

0138 Bob Worcester also reports Kerry up by 1 in Florida, up by 3 in Ohio, and up by a street in Pennsylvania. Bob is calling it for President Kerry. This is not a BBC reality endorsement, but it's as good as we'll get at this point.

0140 jiggery_pokery asks Can we begin to predict an upper bound for any R->D swing based on which states have been called to not yet swing and so begin to predict which other Dem targets might not yet swing? Is it really going to come down to FL and OH or are there other possible combinations with the Dems winning despite missing one or the other?

The Dems need Florida or Ohio, and some others. If we look at the battleground:

Still waiting:
Hampshire, New (4; Swing +0.7)
Pennsylvania (21; Swing -2.2)
Florida (27; Swing 0)
Missouri (11; Swing +1.7)
Ohio (20; Swing +1.8)
Carolina South (8; Swing +8.2)

Carolina South should be safe Rep territory, but isn't. That's a huge outlier. Strike that, BBC is calling Carolina South (8) for the Reps; they're 101-78-1 ahead.

It looks like the swing is going to be somewhere around 2%, which would bring Nevada (5, 3am, +1.9%) into play. Tennessee (11) required a 2.1% swing, but there's a possibility that Arkansas (6, +2.9%, pending) may yet go Dem. For demographic reasons unrelated to the national swing, I reckon Arizona (10, +3.3%, 2am) may go Dem.

Time to move to the next post. The scores on the doors: Rep 101, Dem 78, Faithless 1. Still too close to call, my gut call for Kerry is now backed by Bob Worcester.